Despite some huge signings this off season, the economy has suppressed free agency for the first time in ages. Some players – and their agents – have made mistakes, overestimating their worth in a difficult market.
There are a lot of quality players still available. As we approach the end of the month, players will start panicking and looking for a landing place with spring training nears. Teams will look for the one year bargains – such as Kyle Lohse last year, signing with the Cardinals for $4 million.
You’ll also get a number of players sign for the best one year offer (and chance to play) in order to re-enter the market after the season, and hope for a better climate.
Here are the top 20 guys left on the market (I know people will quibble about the fringe guys, but it’s all for fun, so don’t get your undies in a bundle if one of your top 20 guys isn’t on my list):
Catchers
Gregg Zaun – C – Looks like a fit in Baltimore until Weiters is ready.
Jason Varitek – C – Rejected arbitration from Boston, which would have netted him around $8 million. Now no one wants him at virtually any price since he costs them a 1st round draft pick. He’ll likely end up back in Boston for one year at $4-5 million, and Scott Boros will have misfired on this one.
Infielders
Orlando Hudson – 2B – Any team that signs Hudson owes their first round pick to the D-Backs, making his options limited. Plus, coming off an injury, some clubs are wary. The Mets would love him (and he loves them back), but have the Luis Castillo albatross around their neck. St. Louis is another team that could use Hudson. In the end, we’ll say Hudson ends up with the Mets on a one year deal, or a backloaded multi-year deal.
Orlando Cabrera – SS – A bad mistake to reject arbitration for Cabrera – he could have made upwards of $10 million, but now is finding scant interest because he costs the signing team a draft pick. The Twins would fit well, but don’t give up their picks easily. This one is tough, but we’ll go with the A’s making a move on Cabrera after his price goes down.
Joe Crede – 3B – SF has shown mild interest, and it will probably pick up enough for the Giants to land the talented, but injury prone, 3B.
Ty Wiggington – 3B – Astros or Twins. We go Twins for no other reason than they never seem to sign anyone, and it would be fun to get them on the hot stove.
Outfielders
Bobby Abreu – OF – After much hemming and hawing, Abreu will end up with the Reds. I’m not totally thrilled with this prediction, but they fit. A dark horse could be seattle, who could use the bat. Main thing would be money. Whatever team gets him gets a hack in the field, but a solid lefty bat.
Manny Ramirez – OF – LA. They need Manny and Manny needs them. SF is a smokescreen to drum up interest. Watch for a two year deal with some sort of option that gets Manny around $20 million/year.
Adam Dunn – OF – Hard to peg – a number of teams want him, but no one wants to pay him the $14-15 million a year he wants. If the Nats can move Nick Johnson and his salary, they will make a play. Let’s go for that – Nats will get him for 4 years/$52 million and Dunn gets plugged into 1B (he should never get near the OF unless its to shag flyballs).
Ken Griffey Jr. – OF – good God, who knows. He probably shouldn’t even be on this list. He may even retire. He just doesn’t match up well. I had hoped the Mariners would re-sign the Kid and put him at 1B – but they’ve inked Russell Branyon instead. Where does he land? Again, not a clue. I don’t think he has a clue either. My bet is that he retires, or waits for an injury to happen either in the OF/1B or DH and goes in and plays 3/4 of the time against righthanders (he should never see a lefty – he can’t hit them worth squat anymore). Best bet: retirement.
Starting Pitchers
Jon Garland – SP – An innings eater who can help numerous teams. He is more of a fallback type guy, however, and teams aren’t hot for him at the time. This makes him hard to pick. So, we’ll give it a stab and say the Dodgers, on the play that Pettitte is only 50-50, and LA needs another arm.
Braden Looper – SP – Another back of the rotations, innings eater guy. Looper is a good bet to be Milwaukee bound if Sheets doesn’t return. 2 years and $5-6 million/year would do the trick – maybe even less.
Pedro Martinez – SP – Pedro is coming off injuries, so interest is scant at this time. He’ll probably end up back with the Mets on a one year deal and they can bring him along slowly.
Oliver Perez – SP – This should be finished soon – he’s back with the Mets at $10-11 million a year for three seasons.
Andy Pettitte – SP – The saga continues. Pettitte has a standing 1-year, $10 million offer from the Yankees on the table. That doesn’t thrill him, however. The options would be the Astros and Dodgers. Houston, however, can’t offer more than that, so we’ll go with the Dodgers on a similar deal, reuniting Pettitte with Joe Torre.
Ben Sheets – SP – Rangers or Brewers are likely, but there may be a dark horse in the Yankees. Whomever signs Sheets owes the Brewers their top pick – but since the Yankees have already signed three better players, they’d only be giving up their 4th rounder. Sheets would go on a one year deal and reenter the market next year, after proving his arm is sound. Playing for the Yankees allows him premium run support and a DH (Sheets is one of the worst hitters in the game). Assuming he’s healthy, he can win a good number of games and hit the market when it’s better. But in the end, we think the Rangers will take the plunge on Sheets, especially if they convince themselves his injuries are behind him. Texas has a great minor league system, and they can absorb the lose of their top pick for signing Sheets. But if the Rangers aren’t convinced Sheets is healthy, he will probably end up back in Milwaukee on a one or two year deal. The Yankee threat, would loom.
Randy Wolf – SP – Tougher than you think. Numerous teams want him, but not on a big deal. We’re betting he doesn’t get the big deal, so he goes to a top contender where he can win, and re-enter the market next year – that team is the Cubs.
Relief Pitchers
Juan Cruz – RP – Cardinals don’t want to give up a draft pick, but they like Cruz and he’ll immediately move into the closers role. Price should be reasonable – in the $5-6 million range for 2-3 years. Cruz could end up being one of the best signings of the offseason as he has the chance to be a dominant reliever.
Will Ohman – RP – Back to Braves as they solidify their staff. Lots of teams like him – if not the Braves, the Rangers.
Brandon Lyon – RP – Lyon is hard to tab, as people like him, but no one loves him. He’d like a closer’s job, but there are only so many. The Cards may take a flyer if they pass on Cruz. Another team could be the Brewers, who have a pretty mediocre pen. Lyon would be good insurance in case Trevor Hoffman fails. In the end — not a clue!
Teixeira may have overplayed his hand with Boston — but for now, they are no longer in the picture. The Yankees could really use Teixeira’s bat.